Global FID Outlook 2026

Understanding which projects will sanction — and why

As the global energy and infrastructure pipeline moves toward 2026, project announcements across LNG, upstream oil & gas, refining, power, hydrogen, and carbon capture continue to expand. Yet history suggests that headline pipeline size is a poor predictor of actual investment outcomes.

The Global FID Outlook 2026, published by EnergyStrat Consulting, addresses this gap by assessing which large-scale projects are realistically positioned to reach final investment decision (FID) in 2026 — and which are likely to slip, restructure, or defer.

Rather than tracking announcements, the report focuses on FID conversion and execution readiness, using a project-level, probability-weighted framework.

From announcements to capital reality

A central finding of the analysis is the growing divergence between announced capital and capital that is realistically positioned to sanction.

Of the USD 160–175 billion of global projects publicly targeting FID in 2026, EnergyStrat’s assessment indicates that:

only around 25% is positioned to reach FID on a high-probability basis,
a further 20–25% remains conditional, dependent on financing, EPC readiness, and risk allocation aligning,
while the remainder is unlikely to reach FID within the year.

This pattern reflects structural changes in capital discipline, risk transfer, and execution sequencing, rather than a lack of project ambition or demand.

Where FIDs actually convert

The report examines regional conversion efficiency, highlighting that some regions consistently translate project intent into sanctioned investment, while others show persistent slippage.

Key observations include:

Middle Eastern projects demonstrate the highest FID conversion reliability, supported by sovereign sponsorship, integrated execution frameworks, and capital authority.
North America continues to generate large pipelines, but FID outcomes are increasingly sensitive to financing conditions, EPC cost certainty, and offtake structures.
Europe’s policy-led project pipeline remains substantial, yet FID conversion is constrained by subsidy execution, permitting, and bankability considerations.
Asia-Pacific shows selective strength where experienced sponsors and proven execution models are present.
Africa and parts of Latin America exhibit high resource quality but elevated execution and financing risk, particularly for greenfield developments.

Execution and EPC reality

A core theme of the Global FID Outlook 2026 is that FID does not automatically translate into construction activity.

The report finds that EPC value associated with 2026 FIDs is:

increasingly concentrated around a smaller group of sponsors,
more often phased, rather than released at FID,
and subject to uneven execution risk, clustered in specific project types and regions.

As a result, rising FID counts do not imply a proportional increase in EPC or OEM opportunity.

Scenario sensitivity

The analysis evaluates how the 2026 FID pipeline responds under downside, base, and upside scenarios, including variations in financing conditions, EPC cost inflation, policy execution, and commodity markets.

Under downside conditions, financing-led and policy-dependent projects exhibit disproportionate slippage, while projects backed by sovereign sponsors or robust execution systems show greater resilience.

This scenario lens allows users to distinguish between structurally resilient projects and those that remain scenario-dependent, even in more favourable market conditions.

Sponsor behaviour as a determining factor

Across sectors and regions, the report finds that sponsor decisiveness and execution capability increasingly explain FID outcomes better than sector fundamentals alone.

Sponsors with:

clear capital authority,
mature execution systems,
and tolerance for phased risk transfer

consistently demonstrate higher FID follow-through than those reliant on fragmented financing, policy support, or late-stage optimisation.

Who the report is for

The Global FID Outlook 2026 is designed to support:

Investors and lenders assessing near-term sanction risk and downside exposure,
EPC contractors and OEMs prioritising bid pipelines and resource allocation,
Developers and sponsors benchmarking FID readiness,
Off-takers and buyers evaluating which supply options are most likely to materialise on schedule.

About the analysis

The report is based on project-level assessment of major global developments (USD >500 million) targeting FID in 2026, using a probability-weighted framework that incorporates capital structure, execution readiness, sponsor behaviour, and scenario sensitivity.

The focus throughout is on FID outcomes rather than announcements.

For further information about the Global FID Outlook 2026, or to discuss how the analysis applies to specific regions or portfolios, don't hesitate to get in touch with EnergyStrat Consulting. Send us an email contact@energystrat.consulting